Social Security Trust Fund Runs Dry in 2033, Triggering Automatic 25% Benefit Cut

The 2025 Social Security trustees report projects the OASI fund becomes insolvent in 2033—one year earlier than prior estimates. Without congressional action, incoming payroll taxes will cover only 75 percent of scheduled benefits by 2035, forcing an automatic across-the-board cut to every retiree. This insolvency date now falls squarely within planning horizons for near-term retirees, long-bond investors, and pension sponsors modeling liability assumptions.