Risk Premium From Iran-Israel War Still Pricing Into Oil and Gold After 11 Months

A ceasefire between Iran and Israel took effect June 24, 2025, but as of late May 2026, oil and gold prices remained elevated by residual geopolitical risk. The persistence reflects how markets price operational uncertainty—not just formal diplomatic agreements. For commodity portfolios and fixed-income desks, the tail-risk overhang on these liquid markets matters: a sustained crude premium compresses real returns and complicates central bank reaction functions.