85% of S&P 500 Companies Now Beat Earnings Estimates—Double the Historic Rate

FactSet data shows 85% of S&P 500 firms beat consensus earnings in recent quarters, up from roughly 50% decades ago. The shift reflects guidance management: companies set conservative bars; analysts shade estimates below those ranges to avoid embarrassment. The result is a rigged game where "beating consensus" is now statistically normal, not exceptional. This mechanics matters for investors—momentum trades triggered by beats carry weak predictive power when 85% of outcomes are predetermined.