Futures vs. the Fed: Markets See No Rate Hike Until Mid-2027

Rate futures price no Fed hike before mid-2027, clashing with the Fed's dot plot, where nine officials expect a 2026 hike. Three of 12 FOMC members dissented at July's hold at 3.50%–3.75%. Weak July payrolls drove the split. ING sees a September hold; J.P. Morgan expects a December hike. The gap won't resolve before September.