Markets Bet No Fed Hike Before Mid-2027, Defying the Fed's Own Forecast

Rate futures price no Fed hike before mid-2027, clashing with the Fed's dot plot showing nine officials expect a 2026 hike. Three of 12 FOMC members dissented at the July decision holding rates at 3.50%–3.75%. Weak July payrolls drove the divergence. ING sees a September hold; J.P. Morgan expects a December hike. The gap won't resolve before September.