Markets and BOJ at Odds Over Rate-Hike Pace

Markets expect one more 25 basis point BOJ hike (a quarter-percentage-point increase) in 2026, then a pause (Reuters, June 16). But Reuters reported July 22 the BOJ "remains alert to upside inflation risks" that could force faster hikes. That gap is the key tension for yen, JGB yields, and carry trades. The July 30–31 summary may show how wide it runs.