Markets Bet BOJ Pauses After One More Hike — But the Bank Itself Flags Faster Tightening

Markets expect one more 25 basis point BOJ hike in 2026, then a pause (Reuters, June 16). Yet Reuters reported July 22 that the BOJ "remains alert to upside inflation risks that could lead to faster rate hikes than markets project." That divergence is the key tension for yen, JGB yields, and carry-trade positioning. The July 30–31 meeting summary may reveal how wide it runs.