Most S&P 500 companies are missing earnings targets—a warning sign

Three-quarters of S&P 500 firms disappointed on third-quarter earnings, the weakest beat rate in two years. This pattern preceded the 2015–2016 earnings recession and the 2020 pandemic downturn. When most companies miss, the few that beat often see outsized stock moves. The takeaway: macroeconomic tailwinds are fading as inflation, supply constraints, and shifting consumer spending pressure corporate results.