Fed Hike Odds Drop to Coin-Flip After July Jobs Shock

July's surprise payroll contraction (Reuters, Aug 7) slashed the implied odds of a September Fed rate hike from 55% to 40–44% across CME FedWatch, fed funds futures, and Kalshi. A 15-point swing on a binary FOMC outcome is a real surprise. With inflation still above target, the market now sits at roughly even odds between hike and hold, highly sensitive to the next CPI and labor data.