Fed Rate-Hike Odds Plunge to Near Coin-Flip After July Jobs Contraction

July's surprise payroll contraction (Reuters, Aug 7) cut implied odds of a September Fed hike from 55% to 40–44% across CME FedWatch, fed funds futures, and Kalshi. A 15-point swing on a binary FOMC outcome is a genuine surprise, not noise. With inflation still above target, the market is now torn — roughly even odds between hike and hold, highly sensitive to the next CPI and labor prints.