Baby bonus won't lift birth rate long-term, top demographer says

Professor Paul Spoonley says NZ's fertility rate has fallen to 1.53 births per woman — about 25% below replacement level — and may drop to 1.2–1.3. His comments follow NZ First's proposed Kiwi Kids Grant, offering up to $45,000 per family. Spoonley said baby bonuses produce only a short-term blip, citing Sweden's far more generous package failing to prevent fertility settling to NZ-comparable levels.