Baby bonus won't fix falling birth rate, top demographer says as NZ First unveils $45,000 grant

Demographer Professor Paul Spoonley says NZ's fertility rate has fallen to 1.53 births per woman — about 25% below replacement — and will likely drop to 1.2–1.3. His comments follow NZ First's proposed Kiwi Kids Grant, offering up to $45,000 per family. Spoonley said baby bonuses produce only a "short-term blip," citing Sweden's far more generous package failing to prevent fertility settling to NZ-comparable levels.