National polling at 28.7% would cost the party 12 seats

An RNZ-Reid Research poll puts National at 28.7 percent party vote, enough for 36 seats — down from 48. Paul Goldsmith, contesting Epsom against ACT's David Seymour, was unsure he would return. Chris Bishop said retaining Hutt South was "highly unlikely." Nicola Willis, list-only, said she was not concerned.