Oil Jumped on Hormuz Unease—But Not on a Single Crisis

WTI crude surged 4.26% to $74.45 on July 12, 2026, erasing a month of losses. Prices climbed to $78.13 the next day—a gap traders read as genuine repricing. No confirmed strike or blockade triggered it. Instead, markets are betting the Strait of Hormuz faces prolonged transit friction. That distinction reshapes how traders price risk in options markets.