Oil Surged Without a Named Trigger—Markets Repricing Strait Disruption Risk

WTI crude jumped 4.26% to $74.45 on July 12, 2026, reversing a month of declines. MarketWatch showed prices climbing to $78.13 the next session—a gap move traders associate with genuine geopolitical reassessment. But no confirmed strike, blockade, or policy shift drove the move. Instead, markets are betting the Strait of Hormuz won't return to normal transit. That distinction matters: repricing based on duration of disruption behaves differently in options markets than one anchored to documented supply loss.