Oil Markets Shrug Off Iran's Strait Closure Claim, Defying $100+ Forecasts

Brent crude closed at $78.93 on July 13—up 3.84% for the day but down 5.10% over the month—despite Iran's declaration that Strait of Hormuz transit is now impossible. The tepid price response contradicts analyst predictions of $100–$150 per barrel if the chokepoint sealed. Either oil still flows despite rhetoric, or traders doubt the blockade will stick. Risk managers must now assume political claims and actual cargo diversion diverge.