Oil Stays Near $79 Despite Iran's Closure Claims, Signaling Market Skepticism

Brent crude settled at $78.93 on July 13, up 3.84% on the day but down 5.10% over the month, despite Iran's July 12 declaration that Strait of Hormuz transit is "currently not possible." The muted price action contradicts earlier analyst forecasts of $100–$150 per barrel if the chokepoint closed. Either oil is still flowing despite political claims, or traders doubt the blockade will hold. Risk-pricing desks must now assume closure declarations and physical cargo diversion can diverge for weeks.