Dollar Options Soar While Spot Price Goes Nowhere

One-month risk reversals on the dollar hit 92 basis points in July 2026—the highest in a decade—meaning traders are paying a premium for protection against dollar weakness. Yet the dollar index barely moved, closing at 101.0080 on July 8. The gap between what options markets signal and what the actual currency is doing remains unclear: it could signal hedging ahead of a known event, or unwinding of crowded bets from earlier this year.