Dollar Options Hit 10-Year High While Spot Price Flatlines

One-month risk reversals on the dollar reached 92 basis points in July 2026, the highest in over a decade, signaling traders are paying up for dollar upside protection. Yet the DXY closed at 101.0080 on July 8, down just 0.01%, and compressed into a 55-pip range through early July. The gap between what derivatives prices suggest and what spot prices show remains unexplained—whether it reflects hedging against a known catalyst or unwinding of crowded short bets from earlier this year.