Iran Ceasefire Whipsaw: Oil Traders Repricing Risk Weekly

Oil traders are recalibrating risk forecasts nearly every week as the Iran-U.S. ceasefire gets renegotiated, re-signed, and declared dead in cycles. Trump's July 8 declaration that it's "over" continues a pattern where June's landmark agreement dissolved within days. Sell-side analysts cut 2026 oil forecasts for the first time on July 1—suggesting their models lagged the escalation already underway before Trump's latest comments.