Iran Ceasefire Whipsaw Forces Oil Traders to Reprice Risk Nearly Weekly

Since April, the Iran-U.S. ceasefire has been renegotiated, re-signed, and declared dead multiple times, forcing options desks and Hormuz risk traders to recalibrate event risk on a near-weekly cadence. Trump's July 8 declaration that the ceasefire is "over" continues a pattern where June's "historic agreement" language gave way to renewed strikes within days. Analysts cut 2026 oil forecasts for the first time on July 1, suggesting sell-side models remained miscalibrated to an escalation path already fading before Trump's latest comments.