European Gas Still Trading 31% Above Pre-War Levels, Four Months After Iran Deal

The mid-June U.S.-Iran agreement failed to ease European natural gas markets. TTF futures—the region's benchmark—sit roughly 10 euros per megawatt-hour above pre-conflict levels. The premium persists because traders now price in lasting supply risk from Qatari LNG shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a choke point that remains vulnerable. That risk is now locked into power contracts through 2027.