European Gas Prices Stay 31% Higher Four Months After Iran Conflict, Signaling Lasting Risk Repricing

The U.S.-Iran interim agreement reached by mid-June 2026 failed to normalize European natural gas markets. As of June 17, TTF futures remained roughly 10 euros per megawatt-hour—about 31%—above pre-conflict levels, despite de-escalation. The sustained premium reflects the market's reassessment of structural supply risk from Qatari LNG transiting the Strait of Hormuz, now embedded in forward contracts and industrial power-purchase agreements through 2027.