Earnings Estimates Jumped Too Far—Setting a Trap for Late Buyers

S&P 500 earnings forecasts for Q2 2026 rose 430 basis points (4.3%) to 23.1% year-over-year growth by late June, per FactSet. The revision came before earnings season even began. If actual results fall short of this raised bar, markets historically sell off hard. The 14.9% rally already prices in that optimism. Anyone buying now bets on validation, not repricing.