Earnings Estimates Rose Faster Than Results Will Report—Setting a Trap for Late Buyers

S&P 500 earnings growth expectations for Q2 2026 jumped 430 basis points to 23.1% year-over-year by late June, up from 18.8% at Q1's close. The revision, per FactSet, preceded actual earnings season. If reported results fail to clear this raised bar, markets typically sell off hard. The 14.9% Q2 rally already prices in that optimism. Anyone bullish at today's levels is betting on validation, not repricing.