NOAA Sees 83% Chance of Record El Niño in Late 2026

NOAA gives an 83% chance that October-December 2026 will be the strongest El Niño since 1950, at +2.5C or higher on the three-month Relative Ocean Index. That index removes human-caused warming to allow fair historical comparison. I see it as the clearest check that this strength reflects natural ENSO patterns.