NOAA: 83% chance October-December El Niño tops all since 1950

NOAA estimates an 83% chance October-December 2026 sets a historic El Niño, defined as +2.5C or more on the three-month Relative Ocean Index, beating any since 1950. The index strips out human-caused warming for fair comparison. I see this as the cleanest test that current strength comes from ENSO dynamics.