Rate Hike Bets Hit 80%, Crushing Gold's Run

Fed funds futures now price an 80% chance of a December 2026 rate hike—consensus positioning that is repricing gold and precious metals. With PCE inflation at 4.1%, more than double the Fed's 2% target, gold has posted four consecutive weekly declines. The shift closes near-term easing narratives that had bolstered earlier strength. Each inflation print through November will move this probability sharply.