December Rate Hike Probability Hits 80%, Upending Gold's Rally

Fed funds futures now price an 80% chance of a December 2026 rate hike—near-consensus positioning that is repricing gold and the broader precious metals market. With PCE inflation at 4.1%, more than double the Fed's 2% target, gold has posted four consecutive weekly declines. The shift forecloses any near-term easing narrative that had supported earlier gold strength. Each inflation print through November will move this probability sharply.