Iran and Israel's Escalation Cycle Is Showing Cracks

Iran and Israel swapped missile strikes twice in 2024—in April and October—then stopped short of further attacks. Each side appeared to accept a limit: costly enough to show strength, restrained enough to avoid total war. That balance now faces pressure. If Israel's 86% interception rate suggests Iranian missiles can be contained, or if Iran believes missiles cannot stop Israeli action, both may abandon restraint. The next escalation could target leadership or nuclear sites, where miscalculation becomes catastrophic.