Why Iran and Israel's Missile Exchanges Could Spiral Out of Control

Iran and Israel traded missile strikes twice in 2024, then each pulled back. Both sides seemed to follow unspoken rules: escalate enough to show strength, but not so much that war erupts. Now that's changing. Israel's success intercepting most Iranian missiles may convince leaders that Iran's threats don't work. If Tehran reaches the same conclusion, those restraints vanish—and targets could shift to leadership or nuclear sites, where mistakes become catastrophic.