Oil's 19% Monthly Surge Threatens the Disinflation Central Banks Count On

WTI crude settled at $87.03 per barrel on July 22, 2026, up 18.88% over the trailing month, as US-Iran military strikes intensified Middle East supply concerns. Crude moves of this magnitude typically feed into gasoline futures and headline CPI within four to six weeks. If prices hold near current levels, the disinflationary tailwind central banks have relied on through 2026 begins to erode.