Netflix Q2 earnings Thursday: ad tier and subscriber trends will signal if April's miss was a blip or the start of a slowdown

Netflix reports second-quarter results on July 16 after a 21% year-to-date stock decline triggered by April's guidance miss. Investors will scrutinize ad-tier revenue contribution and the 3.1 million subscriber additions analysts project for the quarter. The key question: whether disappointing forward guidance three months ago signals structural weakness or a one-time miss. Management's own Q2 targets—13.5% revenue growth, $0.78 EPS—are the relevant bar, given those same metrics fell short of external expectations in April.