NDIS costs balloon to $50 billion, eclipsing defence spending

The NDIS will cost $50 billion in 2025–26 — exceeding Australia's defence budget and 1.7 per cent of GDP — after a decade of double-digit annual growth. Treasury signals the trajectory is unsustainable. The scheme's demand-driven design meant steep growth was always likely once it reached scale, but the fiscal pressures are now acute. Stabilising costs without compromising eligibility is the harder problem ahead.