10-Year Treasury Yield Hits 4.73%, Shattering Analyst Forecast of 4.30%

The 10-year Treasury yield rose 3 basis points to 4.7334% on August 11, 2026, up from 4.136% in March. A Reuters poll published August 11, 2025 — when the yield stood at 4.27% — forecast it would trade around 4.30% within a year. Tariff-inflation concerns and debt-supply dynamics the poll flagged as upside risks materialized more forcefully than respondents expected.