Two-Year Treasury Yields Hit 16-Month Peak on Oil Shock and Rate Repricing

Two-year Treasury yields climbed to 4.24% on July 13—the highest since February 2025—as crude oil spiked on U.S.-Iran tensions. Markets are now pricing fewer rate cuts from the Fed in the near term than expected weeks ago, even as oil-driven inflation threatens economic growth. The critical question: does this shift hold, or does it vanish if the conflict eases?