UK borrowing costs rise as oil shocks push gilt yields to 4.91%

The UK's 10-year government debt yield hit 4.91% on July 7 as Middle East tensions drove oil above $70 a barrel, lifting inflation expectations. Each basis point (0.01%) of sustained yield increase raises annual debt-servicing costs for the Treasury—a real squeeze given the government's debt load. The key question: does oil hold, or does geopolitical risk fade?