Why the Fed Matters More Than War for Gold Prices

Gold fell on July 7 even as Middle East tensions pushed oil higher—a sign the market prices geopolitical risk into crude but not bullion. This year, ceasefire news has squeezed gold's safe-haven appeal faster than actual conflict risk faded. Fed rate guidance has overridden geopolitical headlines three times since March, making central bank policy more consequential for gold positioning than headline risk.