Oil Prices Falling: Budget Pain Ahead for Major Producers

The U.S. Energy Information Administration expects oil prices to drop from $106 a barrel in May 2026 to $79 by 2027. Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Venezuela need prices above $80 just to balance their government budgets. A ceasefire deal between the U.S. and Iran removed the risk premium that kept prices high. Without production cuts, these countries face serious budget shortfalls.