Dollar Firm Into FOMC, but MUFG Flags Asymmetric Risk of a Dovish Surprise

The dollar entered the July 29, 2026 FOMC meeting on stronger footing, with MUFG Research describing a prior sell-off as short-lived on July 28. But the positioning carries asymmetric risk: a dovish Fed surprise could trigger a sharper dollar sell-off than that earlier episode, since markets have already priced in a hawkish hold — a pause that keeps further tightening on the table.