Hormuz Dispute Over Whether Strait Is Even Open Sends Oil Up

As of July 13, the US and Iran are actively disputing whether the Strait of Hormuz remains open. The disagreement itself—regardless of which side is correct—has pushed oil markets higher. Markets price uncertainty about a critical shipping chokepoint as aggressively as an outright closure because neither side knows supply flows with confidence. That ambiguity sustains the risk premium through the August futures contract.