Waller Flips to Inflation Hawk After March Oil Shock

Fed Governor Christopher Waller reversed course on July 6, warning that US inflation risks tilt upward—a sharp pivot from February when he saw tariff effects as transitory and February-level core inflation near the Fed's 2% target warranted rate cuts. An oil shock tied to Iran's war in March proved the inflection point. By May, Waller had scrapped the Fed's easing bias entirely. Markets now price a one-in-four chance of a July rate hike.