How Census Question Wording Could Flip Australia From Majority-Religious to Majority Non-Religious

An Essential Media poll tested two formats for Australia's 2026 census religion question. The existing list-based format yielded 43% selecting 'no religion'; a proposed yes/no format produced 54%. Scaled to the population, that 11-point gap represents roughly 2 million adults. The 2026 census on 11 August will use the existing format, making this poll an advocacy data point rather than a forecast—yet it exposes how institutional instrument design shapes the demographic reality policymakers treat as fact.