Markets Keep Whipsawing on Iran Risk—and May Be Mispricing the Pattern

Since March, Iran headlines have spiked both oil and equities at least five times in four months—each spike followed by partial reversals. Trump's July 8 declaration caused Brent to jump 5.2%, then fade nearly completely by July 9. The pattern isn't one-off shock but recurring regime: talks fail, crude spikes to $98 in May, peace optimism rallies stocks, clashes strain ceasefire. Traders modeling this as isolated tail risk underestimate persistence.