Ceasefire Collapse Removes Price Floor on Strait of Hormuz Energy Risk

President Trump declared the US-Iran ceasefire "over" on July 8, citing Iranian gunfire in the Strait of Hormuz. The June agreement had acted as a soft cap on volatility in oil and LNG markets—roughly a fifth of global seaborne crude and comparable LNG flows transit that chokepoint. With the ceasefire anchor removed, traders now lack the nominal 60-day truce that had capped tail risk since March's Operation Epic Fury. How Tehran responds—denial, escalation, or backchannel talks—will determine whether energy markets reprices upward or stabilizes quickly.