Oil Traders Abandon Geopolitical Risk Premium

Brent crude rose $2.17 per barrel on July 7 to $74.16, but traders attributed the bounce to repricing supply recovery and demand rather than fresh geopolitical threats. The shift signals markets normalizing after spring disruptions. Spot prices sit $23 below June's $85 average; the VIX at mid-teens suggests risk appetite stabilizing, not escalating. Forward contracts for July 2027 Brent settled at $71.04, below spot—indicating expectations that supply additions outpace demand growth through next year.