Australia May Face Per Capita Recession Despite Headline Growth

Australia's economy will likely avoid a conventional recession following the Middle East de-escalation and oil-price retreat, but economists warn GDP per capita may contract for two consecutive quarters. Tim Robinson of the Melbourne Institute notes per capita recessions carry milder labor-market effects than standard downturns. The distinction matters: household mortgage repayments have risen $350 monthly from three RBA rate hikes this year, while consumer confidence hit a 50-year low—suggesting the growth recovery masks persistent household strain.