US-Iran Ceasefire Strips 20% Off European Gas Prices

The Dutch TTF benchmark plummeted to around EUR 34/MWh in early July 2026 after the United States and Iran agreed to a ceasefire, unwinding months of geopolitical risk premium baked into energy prices. The move offers relief for industrial consumers and utilities managing hedges, though prices remain well above pre-2022 crisis levels. The durability is uncertain: traders treat EUR 34/MWh as contingent on geopolitical stability. Any escalation could rapidly restore the risk premium.