Gold Forecasters Have a Track Record of Missing High—and Markets Are Pricing Q4 2026 At Risk

UOB's July 2025 call for gold at $3,500 by year-end proved vastly too low; spot rallied well past $4,200. A later October 2025 UOB forecast of $3,900 across 2026 also underestimated. Current sell-side consensus targets $4,600 for Q4 2026—well above July 3's $4,174.21—but the pattern of systematic underestimation suggests caution before taking that forecast at face value.