France's True Heat Death Toll: 33,000 Annually, Concentrated Among the Elderly

France attributes approximately 33,000 deaths each year to heat between June and September, far exceeding the 11,700 deaths recorded during declared heatwaves over nine summers. About 23,000 annual deaths involve people aged 75 and older—a cohort projected to grow through the 2030s. The discrepancy reflects how surveillance methods capture different heat risks: heatwave-episode counts versus seasonal ambient heat stress. As France's population ages and climate heat intensifies, whether prevention measures can match escalating vulnerability remains uncertain.